Monday, October 10, 2011

Week 24 Deposit and Seasonality

Seasonality is an important factor for when you want to buy something. Its not talked often enough imo...

EDIT: At the time this blog entry was posted I had a Youtube video here. That has been removed but I want the rest of my content to be remain. Nothing hidden no past mistakes ignored. All out in the open.

Seasonality is just one of the reasons to pick when you want to invest but I didn't talk about trading with it.  For futures there is probably more utility to seasonality then investing.
MRCI has great seasonality charts and tools. The best I have seen. One of the few actually as most others that I have tried looking for only have the S&P500 or the Dow and not in enough detail to be useful. They cover all major contract months  for futures and have a 5 year, 15 year, and 30 year line on each chart. When all 3 are moving in the same direction, with the same strength (steepness of move), and starting around the same time then we know that we have something to work with.
Here are their seasonal charts. They get updated every quarter but really, does the 5,15, and 30 year averages really change that much in a quarter? The charts cover year round.

Are they worth it? $140 is pretty steep for someone starting out. I find them pretty useful but would only buy them once every 2-3 years tops. Since they do cost a fee for these I can't really send copies or post examples but they do have a couple sample pages on the second link I posted. Page 3 of their example PDF is the meat of this product.

Weekly Activity
$100 deposit into Investing

Model Portfolio Totals

Trading Account: $300
Estimated Monthly Income: $0 (Not ready to trade until Phase 1 completed)
Max amount in Forex trade (20% of account): $60
Max loss per trade (2% of account): $6

Investing Account: $1,383.01
Estimated Monthly Income: $5.75
     ERF: $1.68 income/month
     O: $1.05 income/month
     JNK: $1.84 income/month
     PCY: $1.17 income/month
     TLT: $250 reserved for future purchase
Maneuvering Cash: $210.03

Savings Account: $600
Emergency: $500
Portfolio Protection: $100
CDs: $0
Precious Metals: $0

Disclaimer: The investments and trades in my videos and blog entries are not recommendations for others.
I am not a financial planner, financial advisor, accountant, or tax adviser. The financial actions I talk about are for my own portfolio and money and only suited for my own risk tolerance, strategy, and ideas. Copying another person's financial moves can lead to large losses. Each person needs to do their due diligence in researching and planning their own actions in the financial markets.

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