Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Week 91 update

So I made my weekly update video yesterday, posted it, perhaps some of you even received an email that it was put up. Then I removed it after I did some fact checking. Too many things in there were wrong but I wanted to get the numbers up anyways.

Some of you keep an eye on the spreadsheets and might have noticed my gold position were sold off or halved yesterday.  Its my view that the gold story is just about over and for a number of reasons...

1: Every year for about 10-11 years it has made a new yearly high, except for 2012.

2: GLD has grown immensely in market share. Only so many people can come into a financial vehicle for so long before everyone who will be in it are in and the first people in want to start taking profit. This profit taking probably has gone on since 2011 while the last money, "dumb money" comes in. By dumb money I mean the people buying in with 100% of their portfolio trying for it all. Those taking small positions, re-balancing, or using gold for a strategy may have other reasons.

3: Technical analysis: Looking at a multiyear timeframe gold has been rising in a nice channel. That has now broken to the downside. Also, price has followed its 200 day SMA (simple moving average). That is until the past couple weeks until its broken to the downside.

I had wanted to see if Tuesday would bring a slight rise to make up for last Friday but it never came so I lightened my positions...
For Permanent Portfolio: No change. It self corrects price drops through rebalancing. That's the beauty of PP.
For the ETF account: I am selling half the position going from 10% down to 5%.
For the Active account: I sold all of the gold position. With only $350 I cannot be selling in steps. Commissions will kill the account. I'm content with exiting it all because the number 1 thing we have to do, protect our money so we survive to trade another day.

Investing and Trading Account: $7,041.22
Total Return: -2.86%
Est Monthly Income: $12.41 / month

Trading: $3,419.85
Total Return: -6.31%
     NOK: -3.62%
     SPY 152 May PUT: -30.37%
Cash: $2,784.46

Investing: $3,622.64
Total Return: 0.63%
     AFL: -6.82%
     HAS: +10.14%
     SPLS: +7.83%
     STX: +13.07%
     WHZ: -9.34%
     IAU: Sold
     BLV: -2.57%
     JNK: -1.26%
     PCY: -2.98%
Cash: $1,282.52

ETF Account: $7,210.28
Total Return: -0.61%
Est Monthly Income: $14.15
US Stock
     SPY:  +2.59%
     XLV: +2.92%
     VNQ: +1.69%
International Stock
     EWZ: -1.18%
     PXR: -1.06%
     IAU: -4.51%
     BLV: -2.50%
     JNK: -1.62%
     PCY: -2.86%
     Cash: $2,471.91

Permanent Portfolio: $7,206.10
Total Return: -0.61%
Est Monthly Withdraw Rate (4% rule): $21.88
Listed by weighting
     SPY: 25.34%
     GLD: 23.78%
     TLT: 24.24%
     Cash: 26.64%

Disclaimer: The investments and trades in my videos and blog entries are not recommendations for others. I am not a financial planner, financial advisor, accountant, or tax adviser. The financial actions I talk about are for my own portfolio and money and only suited for my own risk tolerance, strategy, and ideas. Copying another person's financial moves can lead to large losses. Each person needs to do their due diligence in researching and planning their own actions in the financial markets.

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