Saturday, November 26, 2011

Oscillator with the CoT data

Thanksgiving here in the U.S. has made it for a slow week but I was still able to accomplish my main goal I discussed in the weekly review...

EDIT: At the time this blog entry was posted I had a Youtube video here. That has been removed but I want the rest of my content to be remain. Nothing hidden no past mistakes ignored. All out in the open.

So yeah... my voice is really canned. I had to buy a new headset as the mic went out on my last one. Still, some good info here I think.  Google docs is nice but it does not yet have the capabilities I was needing with this level of detail.

The main purpose for this entry wasn't to share my oscillator creation skills but more in showing process. What are some of the things to consider when creating a trading strategy. What are some of the things to be aware of but not add into a trading strategy.

For the CoT report itself, I've talked about it a couple times previously.  Everywhere that I had seen it mentioned though was pretty basic and vague. "This is what the CoT report is. Have fun figuring out how to use it." A lot of it will be personal preference and opinion in how to interpret the data. So I came up with the charts I showed in the video to help bring the data out into view. The raw data is over 120 columns for each week. The vast majority is unnecessary for us.

A little bit on my back testing in the Forex. I only looked at one year on 4 currencies. Its not what I would consider to be an exhaustive investigation. But its a start and we have to start somewhere when demo trading. There is a paradox with back testing. We want to test ideas out with data on what we have. Obviously since we do not know the future we have to use the past. However we cannot be sure that what worked in the past will work in the future. So if we find something useful like a 68% accuracy oscillator? Well it will work until it doesn't.

Here is a link to the raw data:
The data I used is in the "Futures Only Reports" in the middle of the page where each year is broken out in a grid.

Disclaimer: The investments and trades in my videos and blog entries are not recommendations for others.
I am not a financial planner, financial advisor, accountant, or tax adviser. The financial actions I talk about are for my own portfolio and money and only suited for my own risk tolerance, strategy, and ideas. Copying another person's financial moves can lead to large losses. Each person needs to do their due diligence in researching and planning their own actions in the financial markets.

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