As several of you have noticed, I am no longer writing for Sharpe Trade. After this weekend's Sharpe Report issue is released, I will be completely done writing for them.
What is next for me? First off I am taking a little break. I have been creating content in one form or another for several years now. I started this blog back in April 2011 and it's been quite the journey and learning experience. I took a try at Youtube, but found that I didn't care for video as much as I enjoy writing. You have to do what you enjoy or it will turn into work, and I am not spending my free time on financial independence to replace one day job with another. This break will be measured in weeks, not months.
Disclaimer: The investments and trades discussed are not recommendations for others. I am not a financial planner, financial adviser, accountant, or tax adviser. The financial actions I talk about are for my own portfolio and money and only suited for my own risk tolerance, strategy, and ideas. Copying another person's financial moves can lead to large losses. Each person needs to do their due diligence in researching and planning their own actions in the financial markets.
What is next for me? First off I am taking a little break. I have been creating content in one form or another for several years now. I started this blog back in April 2011 and it's been quite the journey and learning experience. I took a try at Youtube, but found that I didn't care for video as much as I enjoy writing. You have to do what you enjoy or it will turn into work, and I am not spending my free time on financial independence to replace one day job with another. This break will be measured in weeks, not months.
Disclaimer: The investments and trades discussed are not recommendations for others. I am not a financial planner, financial adviser, accountant, or tax adviser. The financial actions I talk about are for my own portfolio and money and only suited for my own risk tolerance, strategy, and ideas. Copying another person's financial moves can lead to large losses. Each person needs to do their due diligence in researching and planning their own actions in the financial markets.
I'm glad to know you are okay.
ReplyDeleteThe sudden disappearance followed only with the explanation of having to deal with life,
I thought not good!
Well rest up and make sure to have fun.
If you're not having fun in life what the neck are you doing?
Stay healthy and get wealthy. SpaceCat :-)
LOL dealing with life? Where was this said? I missed any announcement of my leaving.
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enbBc4jxo0U
DeleteI don't know your standing with Sharpetrade
You may have to log off youtube to see sharpetrade's comment.
Sharpetrade has a growing list of people it blocks. I know I'm on it.
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It reads:
Sharpe Trade 2 weeks ago
+Jalreal Brad has had matters to attend to in his life, and therefore will not be with Sharpe Trade, LLC in the future. He is currently only writing articles for subscribers of The Sharpe Report. He is however winding down that as well and will soon stop.
Reply ·
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By the way I didn't write the third comment.
Not that I disagree with any of it but nevertheless I didn't write it.
Stay healthy and get wealthy Cosmosgato
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteAVP is the new benchmark LOL
DeleteYou are joking but that could come to pass.
I knew something was wrong when equity positions were called and compared to fixed income.
That's stacking the deck to outperform but even that's not working.
Stocks for income should be compared to XLP or even XLU.
Stay healthy and get wealthy
We can talk about trading and finance theory and challenge each others ideas, but let's refrain from attacking others' choice in religion.
DeleteIs the equally baseless Santa Claus or tooth-fairy also off limits, or is it just religious fairy-tales?
DeleteThanks in advance for your insight.
My my my AVP making a move,..uhoh! Grab your face creams and cheap jewelry while you can!
To be fair this is a financial blog and so matters of faith are mostly tangential.
DeleteI say "mostly" because Dan chooses not to own oil stocks as they are ruining the Earth.
And the J man is going to destroy those ruining the Earth.
But does choose to own the exchanges traded funds such as VOO which indeed holds Exxon.
CONTRADICTION!
Nor is it all clear how not owning oil equity but burning tanks gasoline driving your car to and from Mexico to do God's work curtails oil usage.
MORE CONTRADICTIONS!
The poor boy is a hot mess.
"I say "mostly" because Dan chooses not to own oil stocks as they are ruining the Earth."
Delete___
I did not know this.
This is the greater problem though. It's the same mind, whether it's trading stocks, owning ETF's that contain stocks you refuse to own individually, as it is the mind that believes in fairy-tale stories from 'hallowed' books that have been proven pretty much fact-less on all fronts.
Of course people are free to believe any nonsense they choose, but here is my questions. Would you trust a mind that can openly operate in such a ridiculous manner?
This is why i chose to point it out. Dan brings his religious mind to the trading table every day.
I may as well ask you if you would have wanted your next president to believe that Joseph Smith found some gold tablets, promptly lost them but was able to now tell you that the Garden of Eden was in Missouri and that native indians are a long lost tribe of the Jews. (see Mormon) Oh dont' forget to add that little diddy about blacks.. No biggie i guess!!
I mean, really? lol You don't want anything to do with a person that can think like that.
Hot mess indeed.
No need for me to beat a topic here. I just want people to start to notice.
I believe the operative word that Pully used was 'attack' I read the post before it was deleted and it had nothing to do with religion and how it may pertain to one's trading habits and everything to do with disparaging someone based on his religion.
DeleteHi Dan! lol
DeleteTaking your religious brain to the trading table is a dangerous thing my friend!
Normally, I don’t feed the trolls, but it has been a slow day, so, what the hell? First of all, I’m not Dan, nor am I a fan of his or organized religion in general. I am someone who supports the decision to delete the original post. I will reiterate what I said before, the DELETED post in no way made a connection between Dan’s trading habits and religion. Its only purpose was to condemn him based on his faith. You obviously have some serious issues with Dan and his religious choices. May I suggest you suck it up and move on?
DeleteAnon 6-10 4:29, Thank you. that was exactly the reasoning in why I deleted the post.
Delete"Normally, I don’t feed the trolls, but it has been a slow day, so, what the hell? First of all, I’m not Dan, nor am I a fan of his or organized religion in general"
Delete______
lol hey the good news about facts are they don't care who you are or what you think.
I can't stop you from continuing to cry over spilled milk but if you were able to read what WAS written, you're able to read what is still up, and comment on that if you chose to do so.
Comparing religion to trading is about as close to a universally understood phenomenon that i can think of, that everyone will comprehend. It truly is a perfect match of human failures.
What was tossed out in the bath water in that post is the mindset problem i spoke of. I will gladly repeat it as it speaks directly to the issue at hand.
So here's Dan's mindset. Let's be clear here. Dan has little to no net worth and is approx 45 years of age. Dan, his own words, is running around and evidently proudly telling everyone on his forum that he see's no problem with HIM getting to $5M by 72 years of age.
I assume everyone understand the glaring foolishness of such thinking. Do i really need to explain?
Oh, and he wants to charge you to watch his circus act. At least that is optional! lol. But what balls! lol.
He's near enough to zero net worth to call it that, 45 yes old, no job of any frequency or amount of income, and this guy can actually find a way to warp that crazy mind of his into claiming pure foolishness! On what grounds i ask? lol.
I'll say it again. Anyone that can think like that in the financial world, or can believe pure silliness like one could cram 1000 or more animals onto what amounts to a canoe for a week, a month - depending on which book the fable is being read from, or could believe you could live inside a fish, or could believe all SORTS of PURE NONSENSE, you DO NOT want anywhere near your brain or your money!
A HOT MESS it was called.
Exactly.
That boy needs to get a real JOB, get a real income coming in and then leave it to a few sector etf's to do his works. He's not yet done himself any favors by screwing around.
Buffett and Bogle...lol. But no, HE knows better....yes it shows!
This is Brad's forum and we play by his rules, but it's unfortunate in that to see what Dan is and how he operates, you MUST bring his religion into it or you will miss it.
DeleteAsk yourself why Dan will never have an honest discussion about his nonsensical beliefs of any kind, religious or otherwise. He won't have anything of it. He's not interested in thinking, just the DOGMA and irrational beliefs for him, lol.
Ask yourself why Dan cannot get along with ANYONE he meets. The reasons come straight from that nut-bag association he has in his life 24-7. It's how they all operate. When Dan has a conflict of any kind what is his first reaction? - yes that's right, UNDER THE BUS YOU GO.
His mindset is like a 5 year old's. Ask yourself how it is that good guys like Brad and Comos' to name just two!, just end up not being able to deal with this guy. It's how they operate!
To not know how this guy thinks or believes is to be blinded to the hot mess! You'll never change the guy. That's off the table. His system of ingrained ignorance prevents it.
Enough specifically of Dan but he does demonstrates what happens if you fail to truthfully answer a simple question.
DeleteWhy are you in the market? To make money or some other reason?
Silver bugs claim wealth preservation is important to them yet they under perform a savings account.
That's a problem.
Active investors claim they want to make money but many under perform elementry ETF portfolios.
That's a problem.
Clearly the above two are not really in this for the money.
If this is a hobby cool. Have fun.
If you are not having fun what heck are you doing?
But no one should delude themselves that they are working as hard as they can securing a future when in reality it's make believing to be David Einhorn.
If it's about money? The markets demand brutal honesty!
Choosing $5 working over $10 sleeping makes little sense if it's about money.
Stay healthy and get wealthy
Cosmo always bringing the skinny.
Delete"Active investors claim they want to make money but many under perform elementry ETF portfolios."
Yeah, that'll set you back on your heels when you look @ it like this. An honest look @ this would likely scare and rightfully so, a vast majority of people into a sector-etf portfolio REAL quick.
If his comment above convicts, you'd better listen up!
Brutal Honesty and nothing else.
Someone here has a real bizarre obsession with Dan.
DeleteI learned stuff from him, and as he states, the stuff he talks about is for teaching the very basics to new guys. If his personality doesn't suit you, don't read his stuff or listen to him. If his account size isn't large enough,his techniques aren't good enough or his percentage gains aren't large enough, again, don't listen to him. The internet is full of traders with whom we can disagree. Find the ones you like.
As for religion, there are tons of irrational religious beliefs, and I am willing to bet tons of irrationally religious traders who make crap tons of money. If he has religious beliefs, they don't necessarily affect his performance or possible lack thereof. It's absolutely irrelevant in my opinion.
It's funny, PMU makes a post simply saying he left SharpeTrade, and everyone is immediately using it as a forum to rip on his old partner there. Why not go to Sharpetrade or email them directly if you have problems with what's going on there instead of whining here?
"Someone here has a real bizarre obsession with Dan."
Delete____________________________________________________________________
Dan and sharpe trade are irrelevant.
This is about logic.
Dan, PMU and myself use to rip on silver bugs publicly and privately because they were silly people.
It wasn't about any particular silver bug but their comical lack of objectivity.
That what this is about.
I would no sooner go to sharpetrade then i would brotherJohnF or silver doctors or zero hedge.
Basically they are people just to laugh at and use as a warning to others of what to do.
Dan like silver bug is over and done. Past the event horizon of insanity. There is no helping them.
As for you learning from Dan that's great!
But I do have some questions if this is about money.
If you simply like and are entertained by Dan outstanding and never mind but if this is about money...
1) How much have you made with Dan?
2) How much would you have made if started with same account and dollar cost average your subscription fee into SPY/TLT or VTI/BND or XLP/LQD .....
Again why are you in the market?
To make money or to hang out with someone?
There are no wrong answers to this question but there are dishonest ones.
It great to like someone and help them financially like charity. Very Very Very Cool.
But don't pretend you are in it for the money.
Stay healthy and get wealthy.
1-How much have you made with Dan?- I've made nothing "with him" because we're not in any kind of agreement or partnership. I said Iearned things from him. I've learned things from many people and made money "with" none of them.
Delete2-How much would you have made if started with same account and dollar cost average your subscription fee into SPY/TLT or VTI/BND or XLP/LQD .....- I'm not sure how much I would have made since I don't care. I have an account with a SPY/TLT split as well as some other accounts. I'm pretty new to the game so my performance and decisions don't matter.
The funny thing is that people like you, and you yourself, go around the web everywhere talking , asking everyone questions, and acting with pretense about everyone but themselves.
Who are you? You're a guy who makes incessant borderline inane and sometimes comical commentary about trading. Along with answering the questions you ask others, why don't you display any performance, account size, strategies etc instead of talking about everyone else?
And to tell me what I'm pretending to do and what my intentions are? F*** off. You don't even know who I am.
Of course I don't know anything about you NewLife that's the whole point!
DeleteThese are questions people have to ask themselves.
BTW I'm not the least bit shocked you have no idea about the numbers in your book.
This is NOT about money for you and that's perfectly fine.
Stay healthy and get or stay happy
"BTW I'm not the least bit shocked you have no idea about the numbers in your book."
DeleteRight now, tell me how much money you'd have if you'd never bought a pair of shoes and instead invested it into IBM and QQQ starting on March 26th 2008 with DRIP on.
Your question was so absurd and had nothing to do with "my book." You know nothing about me, but are making claims about me and still haven't answered my question. What was YOUR performance last year, genius? You're the one making all the claims, not me.
I know you won't answer because you, unlike me ABHOR money! Yes, I can make that claim because of one random internet comment. I know the ins and outs of your entire mental sphere and all of your intentions. I declare with full authority right now that cosmosgatos HATES money, and is also possible involved with children in ways not very wholesome. Yep, saw it all when he didn't answer my questions.
I don't understand why you people troll. It really just doesn't make any sense. You're not Ed Seykota, and you don't have the ability to psychoanalyze me because you simply don't have anything to base it on.
Honestly good luck and goodbye NewLife.
DeleteI have been followind Dan for a long time. and from the start he has rubbed me the wrong way. When you started making your videos, I was so excited... they were great, and I could that your good intent was pure and honest. Dan, well, I could always tell that it was more about his ego.
ReplyDeleteI swear to god, when you two went to sharpe trade I knew it wouldn't work out. Dan doesn't seem to be the type to share the stage.
Pully, Brad, I am being a bit selfish when I say I truly pray that you start something back up. your advice was so helpful.
best of luck buddy..
Well said, I couldn't agree more!
DeleteThank you for the kind words on my videos.
DeleteI'm still debating what my future will hold but will update this blog as to that future when I decide.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteYour voice will be missed!
ReplyDeletePlease return someday.
-Maduane
Full disclosure.
ReplyDeleteRemember way back in sane refuge (LOL) my "ETF Fetish thread"?
That was my attempt to gently push Dan towards passive investing (exactly what he is doing now to save his butt!). I knew Dan's ego would not allow frank counsel.
But here is the cold hard truth: Dan has no edge in the market.
His career years are outliers saving his overall performance.
The 50-50 split of SPY/TLT among others has handily beaten Dan going on 4 years now.
I like Dan. I really do. But I'm going to give a pass to nonsense.
I don't do it with silver bugs. I didn't do it with DonHarrold and I'm not going to do it with Dan.
I think Dan and Don are both really smart but neither are great traders or investors.
Don loses money and Dan learned not to go broke and to sometimes get lucky. (Big whoop)
If you don't want to read what I'm writing that's cool. Tell me to shove off and I'll be gone and will not return.
Regardless good luck on your future and as always..
STAY HEALTHY AND GET WEALTHY AND BE HAPPY Cosmosgato
Heya Cosmos. Good to hear from you.
Delete'Stay Healthy and Get wealthy' I've always did like that saying.
I'm always interested in what you have to say.
Hope all is well with you bud.
Doors closing and windows opening and all that jazz...there are those who have had faith in and supported you from the start. Perhaps this had to end so something even better could begin. S.W.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the kind words. I honestly didn't expect to hear all of these comments. I just wished to give an update in case anyone still followed me.
DeleteFood for thought for me.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletewell I know I for one am anxiously awaiting your decision. I didnt subscribe to sharpe trade, seemed to lose the luster once dan went there. You being there also was the only reason I was considering subscribing at all.to be honest, I know I would gladly pay $10/mo to have you start making videos again. best of luck Pully.
ReplyDeleteBrad, you and Cosmos should pair up and start something... I would pay monthly for that!
ReplyDeleteThis is getting crazy. An attack on Dan on someone elses account. I am sure Pullingmyselfup did not leave Sharpe Trade because of Dan. Pully works a full time job whereas Dan is a stay at home trader. Try writting blog posts and you will see how time consuming it is. He has followed Dan for years, so I assuming he would not of wrote for Sharpe Trade if he disliked Dan.
ReplyDeleteHave you seen an video from Dan attacking Pullingmyselfup? Nope. Pully and Dan seem to be the best people talking about the markets to me. They do have different approaches and I think both of them are perfectly OK with that.
I agree. Seemed like a real petty thing for these guys to turn Pully's announcement of a personal decision to cease from writing at one website into a bashing session about other people at that website. I don't remember reading from him why he left, but everyone else seems to know.
DeleteIt has even devolved into mind reading about everyone's intentions and personal ambitions as well. Very "kreskin" as Don Harrold might say. All these anonymous guys know why Pully left, how Dan's religious beliefs affect his trading, how well I keep my personal records, and why all of us trade. The abilities of these guys are almost miraculous if you ask me.
I just hope Pully starts a new blog or something soon because I suck at evaluating companies for long term investments and I would love to learn more from him.
............. because I suck at evaluating companies for long term investments and I would love to learn more from him.
Delete___
That's OK, there's been more than enough studies out there and they all point to the same things. The more you fool with a basic system, the more damage is done to your returns. It boggles my mind how many people under-perform long-term SPX returns by trying to out-think the market, yet they refuse to see the obvious. Instead of buying a few select sector ETFs and going away, they continue to make individual selections, increasing effort for a decrease in rewards.
All you need to do is take an individual in your post and look @ the time-consuming train-wreck he is.
The only reliable things people do when gathering more and more info is increase their confidence and decrease their overall returns. It's a provable fact. Humans are reliably unreliable. Thus the proliferation of guru's.
A simple mechanically run system without human interference bests a vast majority of traders and investors, yet no-one wants to believe it. The evidence is everywhere..........but lets go hide under a rock so we don't have to confront it.
Anon 6:19: There is something to be said for this. Most of my time spent on investing these days is process improvement. Coming up with ways to find quality undervalued companies faster to save me time. I do not want to replace the work I do at a day job with more work.
DeleteYou have to be very good to justify the time spent stock picking vs going with an index there is no doubt about that. The vast majority of investors should stick with indexing. I enjoy reading about companies so the pleasure I get from my research helps justify the time spent. At this time I am tied with my benchmark for the year (S&P500). If it was just about the money, I would consider this year to be failing because I had to trade my free time in exchange for matching a passive index whereas I could have done something else with my time.
...The only reliable things people do when gathering more and more info is increase their confidence and decrease their overall returns.
Delete_________________________________________________________
Outstanding!
The law of diminishing returns
One could argue the balance sheet, cash flow statement, forward guidance, conference call, regional economy, on and on and on ...are the fundamental trader's equivalent to the technical trader with every indicator loaded on his chart.
Stay healthy and get wealthy
....Coming up with ways to find quality undervalued companies faster to save me time.
Delete__________________________________________________________________________
Don't do in 5 steps what you could have done in 1.
E.g. US, large caps that pay a dividend with over a million in volume blah blah blah...
Overlaps hugely with...
Wait for it...
Yes the S&P 500 index listings. LOL
2 + 2 + 3 - 3 and then divided by 4 equals 1 so just go with 1 from the start.
Don't be Fred Flintstone
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFgg89zbKW0
Stay healthy and get wealthy
Brad/Pully: "You have to be very good to justify the time spent stock picking vs going with an index there is no doubt about that."
Delete__________
That's the thing. This is a bit of a falsehood. Time and again studies have shown that being "good" in the sense that we often mean it, is detrimental to a simple process.
This is why some folks are incensed when they hear how little effort many successful traders put forth. When i say little effort what i mean is the effort to formulate a system is up front. From there's it's a mechanical non-human interventionist approach. The picture of no effort.
Most traders/investors believe that there is some correlation to daily/weekly effort, trade-logging, conference call listening, etc etc etc.... and whatever else it is that they 'think' is important but has been shown actually isn't. All it does is satisfy a feeling..increase confidence..reduce returns, yada yada.
Hey if people enjoy doing it then fine, but lets call it what it is and not read more into it than that.
As Cosmo's says, it becomes the fundamental analysis equivalent to a chart full of technical indicators.
I do believe that people can beat the market using components of said market, BUT i do not think it takes near as much effort as many seem to put into it.
Sources: Greenblatt, Buffett, Graham.
Those are the guys than most of your live by too. There are quantitative books that look @ what these guys have to say and have done their own analysis on these approaches.
They show clearly that most traders trying to follow forms of this by adding their own slant "they know better" only serve to reduce their returns.
It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so. - Mark Twain
-RD
Investing-early: Pulling its great to see you back on the blog. I've been checking in every couple weeks for any signs of your presence. I'm also glad to see your townhouse1 cash flowing monthly too!
ReplyDeleteJust saw this news now. Somehow I always knew this was going to happen. :/
ReplyDeleteI'm not going to stir things up and lay into Dan when he's not here to defend himself, but I'll go ahead and agree with what others have said.... he should really stop trying to trade for a living and get a real job.
Best of luck to Pulling...
Well i do not think there's anything to defend. Having a job is your surest way to earning enough funds to live and build an amount of money that you can maybe parlay into enough money to retire on one day, if you live long enough.
DeleteI don't think it's slagging anyone by being honest about it. It's simply being responsible and rational when clearly they aren't. Look, he's 45 and has less net worth than i would gather most people on this board. The main reason IS, he has no job!
It's tough to beat a person bringing in week in and week out a few hundred dollars at least. How's he's gonna do that when trading nothing to begin with? It can't be done. Pray wife stays employed and healthy is not a plan.
Next take a look @ the results of his choices in life thus far. Like I said. 45 and no net worth, playing investment guru in a one-man show....... LLC....did I miss something here?
It's not working.
Stop the insanity.
Grow up and make better choices. Just because one wants to be a rockstar doesn't mean one will be. Time to let it go before you ruin what's left.
I would bet everyone reading this has a job. This is not a difficult concept to understand.
I trade every day and frankly have enough, but I still have other sources of income. I would not dream of it otherwise. Those other sources are my "Sharpe" builders, lol. true!
good luck to all.
-RD
I don't know what Dan's net worth is, or what he had made in past years. But I do know that he has been doing Challenge Projects for several years now, and from what I have seen none of them have gone anywhere. I never followed it that closely but after a while I began to wonder why nothing was happening yet, given the recurring talk how we were soon gonna see the project "take off" once the balance starts growing. When I dug deeper it seemed the account growth came from the monthly capital infusions and that not much else was going on. He also has started over and rebooted the project 3 or 4 times now which makes it hard to put together a continuous record.
ReplyDeleteI will tell you for sure one way to NOT build wealth.
DeleteBeing ?glad? you're giving back 3 years of gains on UNP, inside of a few months. Look at that mess, and sitting there watching it is ridiculous.
All you end up getting is exactly what you're describing. A meat-grinder portfolio and a whole lot of going no-where really.
When the bull market ends, which is all that is going on here, you quite clearly see skill vs less than market performance.
Actually people should have seen this a long time ago.
good luck to all.
-RD
People should have seen it, but most people who found Dan were new to the markets, and it takes a while to put the pieces together. I can't say I lost any money because of him, or that he gave me any particularly terrible advice, and there are worse people in the education world by far. But it's disappointing to end up feeling that all along he's been pretending to be something that he is not.
DeleteThat whole story of being broke and bankrupt in 2001, and building up his accounts enough to quit his job in 2007? What an inspiring story. You need quite a bit of cash to trade for a living, to go from 0 to hundreds of thousands of dollars in a six year time frame? That is incredible. And the Challenge Project was supposed to demonstrate in real-time how he did it. Given the CP results over the last several years of raging bull market I have a hard time swallowing that story.
I remember him saying once that sometimes people in his personal life would tell him to get a real job, and that they didn't respect trading as a profession. I remember thinking wow that's too bad that he has to put up with that, especially since he was so successful. But now I realize the reason why people say that to him is because he was not making any money at it, not because they have any problem with trading.
I remember he would make those comments about the Challenge Project, saying just stick around guys and you'll see the magic start to happen here, etc. I used to wonder if he's really that good why mess around with 1k accounts for all this time? Why not put more cash in and just make the magic happen now? But I never gave it much thought beyond that. Now I understand why.
It's like peeling back the layers of an onion.
"...People should have seen it, "
Delete_______________________________________________________
A veteran trading and investing professional seeks clients on social media?
Really?
Looking back it's was ridiculous premise.
Live and grow wiser.
"ridiculous premise"
ReplyDeleteAs was Anthony Davians act. He also claimed to be a rags to riches success story, a self-made success by way of hard-work, determination, and smarts. A hedge fund wizard hanging out on youtube and twitter.
I had contact with another self-professed highly successful self-directed retail guy who had the same kind of story as Dan. From virtually nothing to trading for a living in a 5 year span. I never doubted anything he told me. His online presence was convincing enough that he got 7 or 8 people to send him money. Yes, people who found him via his social media presence sent him money to trade. For all his talk he turned out to be a meat-grinder trader, made a little, lost a little, and eventually shut down his fund and returned the money to clients (at a small net loss to them).
It's a jungle out there in social media. Anyone can pretend to be anything they want.
To close on a comical note.... Dan had a video not too long ago where he said (paraphrasing) "You know, it's amazing how the wealth can just sneak up on you. You're just doing your thing and then one day you look at your account balance and say 'wow, where did all that come from?' It's really amazing how it happens, the wealth just sneaks up on you." I don't remember what vid it was and am not going to search for it, but I find it beyond hilarious that he is out there making comments like that, given his own circumstances. Wealth just sneaking up on you? Really? LOL!
As many of you know, I've run Challenge project type accounts myself. I do not think it is possible for people to put away $25 a week, buy S&P 500 stocks (AXP and UNP etc), bank CDs and have 1/3rd of your money in a savings account and then retire from their day job. The growth just isn't there to replace a paycheck in any reasonable amount of time.
ReplyDeleteWhat building up wealth to quit your day job by using a buy and hold stock strategy takes, is to be a Dividend Mantra. Eating a Top Ramen type of diet, getting rid of your car to save money by using a scooter, and scraping for every dime. Your average person is not going to be dedicated to stick to that. Along the same lines, they are not going to be dedicated enough to stick with learning the financial markets to live off a portfolio.
However, putting spare change into the financial markets will give some side income, which is a great thing. It can help with the stress of life, and make the difference between affording some luxuries vs 'just getting by'. This is not a bad thing, and should not be dismissed just because it is not enough to retire off of.
Anon June 30 10:10AM:
ReplyDelete"People should have seen it, but most people who found Dan were new to the markets, and it takes a while to put the pieces together. I can't say I lost any money because of him, or that he gave me any particularly terrible advice, and there are worse people in the education world by far. But it's disappointing to end up feeling that all along he's been pretending to be something that he is not.
That whole story of being broke and bankrupt in 2001, and building up his accounts enough to quit his job in 2007? What an inspiring story. You need quite a bit of cash to trade for a living, to go from 0 to hundreds of thousands of dollars in a six year time frame? That is incredible. And the Challenge Project was supposed to demonstrate in real-time how he did it. Given the CP results over the last several years of raging bull market I have a hard time swallowing that story."
__________
Lot of good stuff to chew on there. I can agree with you than Dan would likely not give poor advice in general. I question the entire premise of most people's version of wealth building completely, however. The reason why is pretty simple too. Building wealth using just stocks is a horribly rocky, inefficient and long path. Great if you're.....wait for it....NOAH! and will live to be a few hundred years old, but for us REAL people, it's not gonna work well enough.
Now i know this is not a welcomed comment but the truth of the lack of yachts in the harbor being owned by stock investors is a testament to that. I do not know about you but having to wait until you're too old to enjoy seems a foolish venture to me.
As to Dan's rags to riches in 6 years, you gotta be kidding me. That never happened. There's no way i could ever believe such a tall story. Secondly, you're not trading for a living when you're living off of your spouse's income while you tool around with $50K. His methods are really very lame for wealth building in a timely manner, and the only people that make 80% in a year are people that get real lucky with $500 in a Schwabb account and if they had an objective mind, which he does not, they would realize it's an outlier and needs serious discounting. After a further decade of returns @ avg of what, 10% per annum if he's lucky you see where it's going? And I am sure i am being generous @ that.
6 years rag to riches, should i place that fable in the old or new testament? I think the new. It just fits better. rofl. A c'mon guy's that's just funny.
As to "Wealth just sneaking up on you" All I can say is some people hide very well. Wealth never seems to find them :-)
I have to agree with Brad/Pully, if we're speaking only about stocks. It really is as simple as buying and holding well run divvy stocks and then walking away. How do you know what well run divvy stocks? Then one's that are already on the top of the SPX of judged by market cap. That's a very decent start.
15 minute basic scans every 6 months or more at MOST, is all the effort one needs to put into it. Anything else is self-delusion as can be readily seen by our hero. The most effort i have ever seen one put into banging his head against the wall.
I can assure you as a full model-run guy, more effort does NOT mean more success, in fact i think it's most often the opposite. I run models for this very reason. Humans LOVE to screw stuff up thinking they know better. Trust me kids, keep you hands OFF THE KEYBOARD. You'll do much better for yourself.
Good Luck
-RD
Yes indeed guys, it looks like the truth about Dan is becoming clear to see..... all these years complaining about social media, reminding his flock that he won't be doing this forever and that soon he'll close up shop and leave the interwebs forever!! If he hates it so much, why can't he leave it?? Answer: Money. He needs the money from his subscribers.
ReplyDeleteAs for living off his wife's income?? In a video somewhere in the last several months, I am quite sure I recall him saying that his wife didn't work anymore, because he told her she could quit if she wanted. And another where he says he has many consistently profitable strategies, and talked of one in particular that tops out around 20% a year.
He seems to have racheted up his rhetoric. Likely a sign of desperation. The guy needs MONEY!!! (subscribers!!)
My guess is that he probably started this whole online presence thing with good intentions. But as time went by and his own ambitions of trading for a living were not happening, he slowly became more and more in denial. He probably still believes he can make a living from trading, since he has chosen to push for more subscribers rather than find a full-time job or go to school to get a degree in a field with good prospects.
"... He needs the money from his subscribers."
Delete___________________________________________________
And he personality demands an audience.
His video starts with talk of chardonnay wines, coffee and chocolate, weekend country retreats, analysis of the origins of the Japanese language,... this is a man desperately trying to prove something to himself and others..
And he is a really smart guy.
Sadly for goofy reasons he never allowed himself to actually become the polite wealthy educated cultured gentleman he clearly wants to be.
So social media is where Dan pretends to have the life he knows he should have had.
"6 years rag to riches, should i place that fable in the old or new testament?"
DeleteIn fairness he never claimed to be rich. He never got into dollar amounts. Never said how much he had when he quit work. But from listening to his podcasts at the time I guessed a few hundred thou at least. He used to say that the challenge project would be slow going because he struggled with small accounts, but said once he got close to 20k he could really work magic with an account. And say once you got to around 300k then you could start thinking about quitting your job. So that is how I made my guess. I figured he must have some money for sure.
quoting From his own BlogSpot site:
"2001 - I have to declare Bankruptcy. Trying to pay back the debt, and it just wouldn't work. It couldn't work." ...... "I naturally take all of my brokerage accounts that had some money in them to $0.00"
"2006 - 2009 - I still tried to work part time as an audit control officer, but finally left after only a few months in 2006. As time passed, I didn't need the money, and my success with trading and investing was actually affecting my work ethic, so I left."
So there you have it. Bankrupt in 2001 net worth: ZERO. No less than 5 years later and he quits his job because he doesn't need the money. His words. I don't know how much he made at his job during those 5 years, so can't speculate about how much cash he could have stashed away over that time. Even if he stacked cash like mad it still seems BS to go from 0 to not needing money or a job in that short of a time. Especially since his own track record in 7 years worth of Challenge Projects don't show any growth let alone that kind of astronomical growth.
Anon July 9 4:56PM
Delete"In fairness he never claimed to be rich."
Hey i never said he was. In fact i think i may have been the only one around here that never bought into any of his nonsense. Ever.
I further believe he quit his job because his wife had one and frankly, he cannot cope with life in general. Again I never have and do not now, believe he had 2 cents to rub together in 2006 when he quit his job.
One does not go from zero to hero in 6 years and my proof lies completely in his published returns and good sense, during the biggest bull market we're ever going to see in our lifetime.
Minus a complete outlier year that needs to be discounted, the guy has not achieved on average 10% a year. If he can't do better than that in a raging bull market then how on earth could anyone believe he ever had anything in 2006? Where did the seed capital come from and what did the rate of return have to be?
What is more believable? lol
In reading your post, I think we agree entirely with each other.
It seems to me his entire life may be a fantasy of his own making. He's been reading too many fables in my opinion. It's starting to rub off.
-RD
"he cannot cope with life in general"
DeleteThat reminds me of something. A few years ago he did a video that weirded me out. It was a holy gospel hour type thing where he got REALLY mad. I don't remember what about but I think it was people on the internet angering him. He's been mad before but this was different. He was literally having an emotional breakdown. About halfway through his temper began to escalate and what I was hearing would best be described as pure rage. Total rage-a-holic breakdown. Started ranting about how he hated people, his violent past, and so forth. I felt somewhat disturbed after listening to it. That's when I understood why he was trading for a living and not working a job. Someone who gets that angry over internet stuff would sure have trouble existing in a professional workplace.
I was still naïve enough to believe his story but stopped following him closely around that time. It seemed like much of his material was a lot of talk without really saying anything. I wasn't getting any value from it and figured he must be on a different wavelength than I was. So only checked in with him occasionally for entertainment more than anything else. It was shortly after the launch of Sharpe trade that I one day realized "this guy is totally full of crap"!! lol
Anon July 10 10:46PM
ReplyDeleteWas that the late-night drunken rampage where i believe he also had a falling out (imagine that) with a congregation member as the icing on the cake to a bad day/week/month?
Now look I know you guys do not want to me discuss the religion thing so i won't aside from telling you again flat-out that this is as much of a solid marker as certain genes are as a known cancer risk.
I'm tellin' ya it's just flat out true and especially within certain sects. I call some the "Under-the-bus" group. This is how whole groups of people 'deal' with conflict, internally or externally. You cannot deal with them rationally. They've lost their nut. You immediately get tossed under the bus upon ANY disagreement and no amount of trying to rationalize with them is gonna help the cause. It is a mental defect and i do not care how or why it comes about although i have my belief in the reasons. It's a pattern that once seen you cannot un-know.
Ultimately do you know how it's gonna end? You're gonna end up under the bus, because it's what they do, lol. Either that or you just walk away from them. Some would even say run.
Anyway, good to see the market come around today for those still buying the dip! lol.
A mental note guys. Don't get wasted then flip on the camera for a YT video. It's not likely to end well, lol. You know someone is going to see it before you come to your senses and take it down :-)
-RD
He must have taken it down because I couldn't find it anywhere. It was some time ago, probably pre-NNT and post-Davian if I had to guess. It was posted as an entry on his old blog, with an embedded link to youtube or bliptv. Can't remember exactly what caused the rant. He wasn't on camera either. It was audio-only with a static background pic of his blog page.
DeleteWhen I noticed he had teamed up with Pully I thought back to that rant and wondered does Pully know what he's getting himself into? lol The dude has some serious anger management issues that's for sure.
All I can think is..... his poor wife. He's been at this trading thing for nearly two decades. I'm surprised she's not the one blowing a gasket. Coming home from a hard days work to find him asleep on the couch, or recording podcasts, or studying Japanese. lol
...his (Dan's) poor wife
Delete________________________________________________________
For every pot there's a top.
She is probably as detached from reality as he is.
"For every pot there's a top.
ReplyDeleteShe is probably as detached from reality as he is."
True story. We had this tall tea-pot. I'm sure it came from Wal-mart. Anyway, it was tall enough that it wouldn't fit into the cupboard without flipping the top upside down so the knob would protrude inwards. I could never get used to. I kept whacking the top trying to fit it in, then pull in back out, flip the lid and stuffing it in.
Not being one to continually screw with something, i took the lid and gave the knob a sharp whack on the edge of the counter and off the knob popped. The tea-pot now fit perfectly.
I am not making any big analogy here. I'm just saying you can force stuff to fit if you want to. Again this is a simple fact. Certain religions views on women have not changed in thousand of years where they were considered 2nd class citizens. The wife was just expected to be subservient and the task was made much easier if they were brought up that way. No modern woman with a head on her shoulders would put up with the type of thinking I see coming out of many religions unless it came with dire consequences. A forced-fit if you will. The easiest method being teaching a child from birth. Much nonsense can be accepted when you take that route. She will grow up and not comprehend anything different.
Moving on, I have to ask given the videos and content being produced lately. Am i reading this correctly that Dan's almost 5 year run has yielded about 15% total return on the trading account? I ask, because the SP500 is up about 65% from the same point. I ask because i think i gave him far more credit than that in the past. I was crediting him with 6-7-8-9% a year, now i see it's closer to 4% and pre-drawdown wasn't even 5% a year.
So i have to ask. What person thinks that this 'trading thing' is somehow worth it? Who would look @ that and call it a success in any way? Seriously..........have i missed something here?
Did I hear him saying that 'clients' are wanting a good sharpe ratio first and foremost? What is the deal with this sharpe ratio thing? I can get a good sharpe ratio doing nothing at all. I cannot believe anyone wants a good sharpe ratio more than they want an actual return. I mean, does anyone know if wal-mart accepts Sharpe-ratio points or are will still transacting in dollars? If I handed someone 4% a year, and hell even 8% a year during a period where the stock market was running 12% a year i would consider that a total fail on all fronts. No excuses, I would contemplate John Bogle buy and hold as it would be glaringly obvious that I could not cut it.
If 3 years is now supposedly not enough to judge returns, then how about the 5 years @ 4% he has? Is that enough? And hey if 5 years is not enough then why ever talk about a single one-off return year at all then? At what point does one fall so far behind simple buy and hold do they actually see it for what it is?
If you can throw a way 3 years of returns inside of six months and all the SP500 has done is get a little choppy with max D/D of 3.5%, then what does it say about one's skill?
If one feels comfortable going no-where and sitting on the side-lines, again, I ask, what does it actually say for one's market skills? I say very limiting, bordering on sucking completely. A very shallow set of trading tools indeed.
Look, you cannot run someone else's money and hand out returns like that for any reason. There is no excuse. You won't be their money manager for 2 years never mind 3 or 5 or however long you think you might need. If you're actually any good at all, you're going to have to post new high water marks quite regularly. I'm talking every few months at least. When you're paid on performance, all the self-delusional garbage goes out the window real quick.
If all you're going to do is try real hard yet consistently fail to beat a decreasing benchmark, then maybe we need to re-evaluate the John Bogle approach, going back to a 9-5 job and re-joining reality.
-RD
What bothers me is Dan is now a negative force.
ReplyDeleteDan is delusional in his own world. That's fine whatever.
But.he is undermining peoples confidence and self esteem to keep them quiet.
You are impatient.
You can't stay focused.
You lacks passion.
Essentially there's something wrong with you, if you question my results
That's BS the truth is Dan has been getting disemboweled for years by an index.
Questions are good it means your brain is working.
-CG
Dan has stated that beating a benchmark or an index is unimportant, and no professional would ever concern themselves with such. According to him it's simply earning a positive return above treasuries with good sharpe and sortino marks. So in his world he's doing great.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is that with the numbers he is putting up he would need millions to make enough to really "make a living" from trading. He's forsaking all the benefits of traditional employment in order to trade, so would need to make above and beyond a job income in order to fully make up for not having one. So where is he going to come up with millions in capital? I believe that he was on a shoestring budget all along, and this whole thing has been an exercise in delusion and denial because he does not want to work.
I guess he can do whatever he wants. If he wants to live his life this way then fine. But I have a problem with him telling people for all these years (almost a decade) that he makes a living via trading profits. Telling people that he went from broke and bankrupt to not needing money or a job within a 5 year window (2001-2006). Telling people he doesn't need a job and it all started out with $35 a week "challenge chronicles" in 2001. Well, I don't believe any of the above claims that he has made and I doubt many others do either. Since he likes to talk about his religion and living by the Bible, I wonder what his creator would think of his 2001-2006 exponential account growth story?
"...I can get a good sharpe ratio doing nothing at all." - RD
ReplyDeleteCorrect and in fact more or less what Dan does himself. That's why his accounts don't move.
"...So in his (Dan) world he's doing great." - Anonymous
Bingo!
Yes Dan has his own reality. He is out in space.
I leave Dan alone for the boy is so unstable he might commit suicide if the truth ever touched him.
All we can do is let him pretend to be David Einhorn.
But thank goodness for food stamps, medicare, social security and Catholic charities.
Dan and wife will be able to survive.
"pretend to be David Einhorn"
ReplyDeleteI'm reminded of a ramble in a podcast when he discussed how much to charge for (either Sharpe Trade or NNT) and referred to what Dennis Gartman charges for his letter. Paraphrasing: "I think Dennis charges XXX so that's the going rate for professional advice, but I wanted to make my product accessible to everyone." He speaks of people like that on a first-name basis, as if they are his colleagues. Same thing with former GS trader Anton Kriel, saying "I've always thought about who I should send people to for guidance when I give this up, because Dan isn't going to be around forever. I WILL be shutting down this public presence one day and I don't want to leave anyone hung out to dry, so I'd probably send them to Anton." lol He talks of all these people as if he's on the same playing field as them. I don't have much opinion on either of them, but for Dan to put himself on the same level as them is priceless. The levels of arrogance and delusion in him are unbelievable.
...for Dan to put himself on the same level as them is priceless.
ReplyDelete____________________________________________________________________________________
Gartman: economist for Cotton Inc, traded FX for bank of North Carolina, chief financial futures analyst for A.G. Becker & Co and traded treasury bonds on the Chicago Board of Trade
Anton Kreil: Goldman Sachs 2000 – 2004, Lehman Brothers 2004 - 2006, JP Morgan 2006 - 2007
Dan Shy: High school dropout stay at home husband estimated $5000 assets under management
Again why I must leave Dan alone.
Clearly he is not ready for reality in any way
If he ever saw himself as he actually is....a total complete mental break down immediately take place.
It is really very sad.
Here is a list of some successful high school dropouts. http://under30ceo.com/11-immensely-successful-high-school-dropouts/
DeleteThis goes to show you high school dropouts can do amazing things.
Whoa! OF COURSE ANYONE CAN GO ONTO GREATNESS!
ReplyDeleteBut you first have to accomplish something BEFORE the victory lap.
And the tragedy is Dan has high natural intelligence but unfortunately is a member of a life sucking cult.
He really could have been someone.
It such a waste of a good mind and frustrating to helplessly watch the wrecking of a good human.
So this means I won't be getting $5000 a month in dividends in 3-12 years with $25 a week? :-(
ReplyDeleteJust for example.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXy9HoWX0es
I don't know a lot about this Karen chick but yes she is more than allowed to talk up her game.
40 million in under 5 years WOW!
Once you have achieved, say whatever you want; but until then, shut your mouth and get your ass moving.
Anon July 13 5:29PM
ReplyDelete"This goes to show you high school dropouts can do amazing things."
______
So what? This is the type of non-thinking, thinking that is FAR too prevalent. This is what comes from people who do not understanding statistics and are the same people that get suckered in by the Dan Shy types.
Do i really need to point out what is wrong with this statement?
Really?
It's not what is possible, it's what is MOST PROBABLE that counts.
This is the same foolisness that gives ANY weight to Dan's one-off 80% year. How do you weight that given the rest of the data?
Yes, you throw it away.
Good lord people. How are you ever going to make real money in the markets with this type of shoddy thinking?
_______________________
Anon July 13 8:03PM
I have not seen the link but my guess is you're discussing Karen "supertrader". She does indeed have an interesting approach. I've heard her speak about her operation and since we're in similar spaces and use similar approaches I would be confident i could walk into her office and get up to speed before lunch on Monday. During her discussion i was completing (mentally) every one of her sentences, so i really do 'get' what she's doing on an operational basis.
You have to remember though that she only started this when it was the BEST time in our lives to have been doing it. That really helped her out immensely. She's not really gone through any real down-turns and I am not convinced entirely that she wouldn't have real problems when the foul-weather starts. She has some great people no doubt and as long as they kept the wheels on the risk then maybe she would be OK. Those are really the most interesting times to watch.
She essentially plays market volatility the same as i do but she does it the old-style 'dirty' method. I don't know why she hasn't upgraded and become more modern with her thinking, but the time i checked i did not quite have $40M to my name, lol. So as you say, I'm just here getting my a** moving...
I will end with this though. I think it's perfectly fine to say anything you want about Karen's process (or any other) if you understand it and the wealth difference between you doesn't have much to do with it. A good policy is a good policy and there have been more than enough very wealthy people running nothing but shoddy models and bringing people to zero all the time. It's not wrong to bash stupid when you see it.
Net worth is not the only input.
This is not to say a guy running a portfolio for decades that has not made SP500 benchmark has anything worthy to say except maybe "I guess John Bogle was right"...
-RD
80% year? That's nothing. He used to claim that he twice had 300+% years.
ReplyDeleteWho knows maybe he did make 300% on a 1k account back in 2005 and then let it go to his head and quit his job over it. I think that is the only way those claims could be true.
He had a public Challenge Project on his blog introduced in Nov 2007 and running until July 2011. $500 starting balance and $100 a month capital infusion. In July 2011 the balance was $4597.28 so lets do some math and find out what kind of return that was.
Dec 2007: $500 starting balance
2008: 100 * 12 months = $1200 capital added
2009: $1200 added
2010: $1200 added
2011: 6 months * 100 = $600 added as of July
So 500 + 1200 + 1200 + 1200 + 600 = $4700 total capital contributed.
So the whole project was a net loss of $100 over 3.5 years.
After that he announced he was leaving the internet due to religious reasons of not wanting to mix faith and money. (That didn't last long did it, he has had more curtain calls than Cher). But he said he would continue to run the challenge project privately because when the balance reached $100,000 he would have a CPA audit done on it. 100k?? What was he smoking?? Boy oh boy this is something else......
Dan never claimed a 300% year.
DeleteHe did have a 300% plus multi year trade in silver.
It is difficult to know where Dan is at any moment or how he got there.
He is always in a restart which I suspect is subconsciously to avoid looking a nearly flat equity curve.
From what I understand Sharpetrade is now starting a long term value investing course!
But wasn't that already suppose to be in the current course?
Whatever he is happy making videos where he can refer to himself as a professional every other sentence..
- CG
"Dan never claimed a 300% year"
DeleteYes, he did. He hasn't brought it up in a while so I can see why you would confuse it with his gains in silver. There is a reference to be found in a blog post entitled "The Three Sisters", posted on July 11, 2010. Feel free to find it on his BlogSpot site.
http://investorandtrader.blogspot.com/2010/07/three-sisters.html
excerpt: "Since developing this strategy, I have had years where I enjoyed 356% returns (definitely my best to date). I have had years where I enjoyed 30% returns."
I stand corrected, you are right.
DeleteThis is getting very interesting.
- CG
I do not know who you guys are but thanks. I never really wanted to be a trader, but I thought the idea of the fixed income account was interesting. However, if Dan's fixed income account lost 100 dollars after 3 1/2 years I guess I'll just go ahead and find some good ETFs. Thanks again.
ReplyDelete....I guess I'll just go ahead and find some good ETFs
Delete________________________________________________________________
You are not settling for less by doing so.
Passive investing beats all but a very few.
And the very few are not selling services on social media.
- CG
lol also from that blogspot: "Performance is your reality. Forget everything else." - Harold S. Geneen
ReplyDeleteSo much for doing anything worthy when you get over $500 in that Schwab account. Hey size does matter. Your G/F is not wrong. :-)
Getting back to that YT link earlier. Karen the super trader. Now that could be an interesting discussion. IN my mind what she is doing is the way people need to approach the market once they have size enough to be able to pull it off. It does not take millions to start. You also can't do it on $5000 either. I tested a 'modern version' that i developed that is in spirit the same but not as 'dirty' i think i called it, for the past year on a $100K account. I figured it was the smallest amount that i would be safe doing it with. I have to say it was limiting but doable. I think messy-karen approach would be fine with less than that. ETF version are certainly possible which scale it down considerably but that is getting outside of what my focus was
Anyway back to Karen. I guess she was running along fine since early 2000's, not much was said about her 2008 year but i take it that she was fine as her and a couple investor had about $1M invested., but it was not until 2009 that she got larger outside investors, came up with $42M which she doubled in 4 years.
Her 2013 returns was about 25%, so she's had similar returns all along.
What Tom Snooze-off :-) said was very true. It's not so much the mid 20's returns that so amazing, it's that she's been able to size it up fully that is just crazy.
Over the past 6 years she's been able to turn about $100M invested into $200M.
Also too note how they present it.They tell you she made $43M - sounds much more impressive than saying somebody had a 25% year, now doesn't it.
I would be interested to see how 2015 has stacked up for her. I suspect she's having another great year thus far, given her process.
It's kinda funny. Most traders when they start out make huge returns on small amounts and then 'get real' when they start dealing with their version of larger numbers. I think that's where it ends for most people. Oddly, when you start getting into better processes you realize that you can perform better with what most would call larger sized accounts.... Then you have Karen who has taken it to a whole new level of retail!
An interesting topic.
-RD
Pully, where are you???!!!
ReplyDeleteI still don't get it. Somebody explain this to me.
ReplyDelete"Now that we have the house-keeping out of the way.
I don’t really recall paying someone off.
Because the market we are getting now? Like … right now? Could not be better for the way I have set myself up. I feel like I would have had to pay someone, to get the market we are receiving right now."
So if i understood correctly, our hero is actually, personally in positions, losing money daily for months now BUT has somehow convinced people his new NEW portfolio is going to do well because it's mostly in cash and waiting to buy stocks again when the time is right?
Did i miss something here?
When does a fantasy and regularly reset portfolio, trump a real portfolio?
How is this professional audit of results once it hits $100K gonna work? lol.
MY gosh can you say delusional?
-RD
"Did i miss something here?"
Delete________________________________________________
No and that's why the spell isn't working on you.
The cold hard truth is Dan's average year over year total return is about zero.
After a few years he's so far behind the market no amount of spin will work and he just starts a new portfolio.
For example 2014 nononsensetrading's stocks had a little less than 20% total return from inception in 2011. The market returned over 60% for the same period.
Meaning even if Dan had a 100% year and the market were flat, he would still be well behind!
Uh oh! Time for Sharpetrade and a restart.
Well Sharpetrade imploded too so you know already what was to come
Wait for it....
Sharpetrade has been renamed mere a short term trade account and Dan's real (reset) account will be started later.
Yes I can say delusional.
CG.
Correction: Dan would have needed only a 33% return to catch a flat market not more than 100%.
DeleteBut the still valid point is whether 33 or 100 it wasn't going to happen.
CG
I have a bit of a follow-up question too, that i forgot to ask.
DeleteI am no real fundamental guy nor do i spend a lot of time on it when i do look, but if a Fundamental 'expert' evidently couldn't see he was about to lose his @$$ on UNP every day for a half-year, then what, I ask, is the reasoning behind believing he's now going to "see" the bottom when it happens?
I mean we're talking real money on some amount here right? He was really holding this thing form the top thinking, evidently ,everything was all right...
And then to come out grand-standing about loving this and waiting to "buy" in his 'fairy-tale' account.
Just wow.
33%? Ah heck, those are normal returns for Dan doncha know. In fact I've heard 300% and 80% being touted quite a lot, so 33% must be a walk in the park, right?
-RD
And (Dan) then to come out grand-standing about loving this and waiting to "buy" (UNP)
Delete________________________________________________________________________
DonHarrold would be proud.
Technically, Dan of course is telling the truth and appears a genius.
But knowledge of the whole reality makes him look much more...amateur retail.
Cold hard truth
People that actually can do what Dan misleads newbies into believing he can do would not place this much effort into a $50 per month service.
CG
Do you people think Pullingmyselfup left Sharpe Trade because of Dan. Also, Pullingmyselfup was a suscriber of Aileron Market Balance. Also Pullingmyselfup said "he learned a lot from Dan" when Dan was getting fed up a few years ago and stopped his blog.
ReplyDeleteI disagree with the fact people say I have multiple portfolios. You only have one portfolio, but may have multiple accounts that make up that portfolio.
"I disagree with the fact people say I have multiple portfolios. You only have one portfolio, but may have multiple accounts that make up that portfolio. " - Anonymous7
Delete_____________________________________________________________________________________
The problem is only a CPA can figure out what's going on.
Here's what people need.
1) $10,000 invested with Dan (or whoever) in 2011 (or whatever start date) is worth today?
2) Maximum draw down?
3) Maximum draw down of starting capital?
It's really that simple.
From there people can ask more questions if needed.
If someone needs a dissertation to explain returns? RUN AWAY!
"chatter, talk, double-speak, deflection of the real returns, new new versions and other sorted nonsense." - RD
I agree 100%
Either declare this a hobby (Which is perfectly cool!) or get serious (Stop pissing away time!).
CG
Anon7: "I disagree with the fact people say I have multiple portfolios."
ReplyDelete__________
You're right, you only have one portfolio. It's called the real one. The one where your money is actually at. The rest is chatter, talk, double-speak, deflection of the real returns, new new versions and other sorted nonsense.
As far as someone learning something off of another, lest anyone think that you can only learn from watching success, (lol), i'll tell you a life learning i've had. I watched my dad do back-breaking honest work for 55 years and end up with nothing at the end of it.
I tell you, I learned a LOT from watching that my entire life. I learned exactly NOT what to do, rofl. Hey i love the guy, but there was a guy that could never get out of his own way. I think people could and have learned a LOT from watching this train-wreck of a situation that is Dan's life. Pretty much exactly NOT what to do.
-RD
Cosmo, have you seen any good online info or books that can seriously help one get serious in trading?
ReplyDeleteI am so leery at anything I see because I dont know if its worth it. I just want to find a legit system that gets semi decent results.
Mike
openbahr@yahoo.com
Hey Mike,
ReplyDeleteNo, you didn't ask me and i am sure Cosmo's will be around shortly but i certainly have a thought or two for what it's worth to you.
I always want to call you "Open Bar", btw, lol. And maybe this was your intent all along.
Anyway, "Serious trading"...."Semi-decent results"
There are just too many positive expectation systems out there. I mean lets think about it, buy and hold works, does it not?
Buying a few index ETF's and sitting on them actually does work. In fact it works better than most traders - especially of the type and kind that we've been discussing in this thread.
You're looking for more?
Well both Cosmo's and I have seen the numbers and we can tell you that a SPY+TLT(or similar) combo has worked very well for many years now. Many years.
So there's another idea.
You want more than this?
Well, how often has anyone here SERIOUSLY looked into thinking for themselves. Coming up with their own ideas based off the mounds of free info you can find on the NET?
To use an example found recently on this very page, how many people here have SERIOUSLY looked into what "Karen - Supertrader" does? How does it work, why does it work and what are the risks?
Do you know what 'serious' success takes? Seriously getting down to business, doffing the uselessness that plagues 99% of your fellow retail traders........see why for example what Dan does is a total waste of time and you should be able to be do all of this and more without thinking and with a full and uncluttered understanding of why this is so.
It needs to be instinctive, full auto, 'you've hit the mark' with great accuracy and no real effort. You need to size up a 'clown and his system', with ease, so you're not side-tracked with time wasting nonsense.
There are tons of good ideas and 'models' out there. Cosmo's trades currency and i assume profitably. I would starve to death if i had to do that. I trade volatility over several different algo's. I know why i do it, I know how it works, I know why it's only about 1000X better (probability, edge, risk-reward etc etc) than foolish stock trading/picking/investing.
You have to ask yourself what you want to accomplish and then sit down and figure out why most people TRULY fail or under-perform. You've gotta get serious. You've gotta start thinking different than 'retail'. Much different.
Retail traders are dumb as stumps - don't take it personal, whomever this may offend. Their heads are clouded with too much foolishness and silly rote-answers that where wrong the first time they heard it a decade ago.
- RD
Mike - Follow up link...
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cboe.com/micro/buywrite/BlackRock-VIXYourPortfolio.pdf
Here Mike. Here's a link to a process that will best a huge majority of retail traders. With a little thinking and some work you could shape this into a smaller-sized ETF play suitable for any sized account.
Clearly i am biased on this because this article in a nut-shell is what Karen (Super-T) and myself base our futures/index options ideas off of - loosely speaking. We didn't make this idea up. It's been around for years and years.
The article contains 3 broad trades - 2 of which i do and a third is OTC swaps and not really for us retail guys.
As you can see my main trade bests Karen's historically speaking. It just makes sense to me why this is so and why i prefer what i do over Karen. That being said, ironically enough, I have a "Karen" trade on at present and none of my own. Hey whatever looks best to me at the time.
The results are variable but between 20% and 30% a year is far more common than not for the exact algo i run. My peak this year was about +25% but i am off that a few points as of this writing.
Cosmo's know i ran a 'test' of a variation this past year (July to July) and it pulled off about 23%. The cool part was i called the smaller end of the scale when i started in July 2014 @ 20%-25% based off of market conditions that i felt we would be in.
Either way who cares. It's kills so many systems (Ask yourself WHY.......) that i could care less if it only pulls off 12% once in a while.
Why do more people not see this and do it?
You tell me. I can only assume ignorance.
But once shown, what will the next excuse be?
Do you knows why Dan Shy will continue to be a failure even after reading this information? Because he thinks he knows better. His arrogance and high IQ gets in the way. Ironic isn't it? That's the only thing keeping him from success.
Don't let his failure be yours.
- RD
What to study?
ReplyDeleteWhich book to read?
Well the RD (who you should carefully listen to) did most of the work for me but I’ll add
Trading is gambling and successful gambling is about odds and payouts.
So…
Any laymen's elementary/introduction book on probability & statistics is what you really need to know.
And let me emphasize "ELEMENTARY"!
Don’t go to the local college book store.
I talking $20 for soft cover public domain published by Dover
A doctorate degree in applied mathematics is NOT needed!
Did you graduate high school with a C minus average?
Do you know one half 1/2 is larger than one third 1/3?
If you answered maybe to either or both the above questions, you can be a good trader!
You just need to be familiar and comfortable with basic concepts.
1) Compound probability of independent events
2) Statistical/mathematical expectation sometimes referred to as expected value or EV
3) Regression towards the mean
4) The null hypothesis
5) …
The above may at the moment sound alien and difficult.
They are not.
Once you have the above under your belt, the market will feel a lot different.
CG
Thank you guys so much. I really appreciate your help. I will get to work right away educating myself on the ideas you presented.
ReplyDeleteAre you talking about selling straddles ? Do you mean options on the VIX?
Btw. Open bar is what I was intending. It's a play on my name.
I personally use vix futures, long-short-ratio's (Calenders/ratio's).
ReplyDeleteI do this because i have years and years of futures data whereas i have no vix option data with which to build a program from. I guess i could trade vix options, I'm just far more comfortable with direct futures.
Karen "Super-T" (and i will as well) does SPX options as per her interviews. She goes a long way into telling you what she does and how she thinks. Again anyone interest could figure out probably 90% of what she does just by listening. You could easily do SPY options to follow her ideas. Just know the potential risks/draw-downs.
I have and you can, use vix etf's. Ideas include ratio XIV vs VXZ for example but using etf's are much harder to run my type of algo work on because they are cumulative returns of their respective months whereas algo's should be run off of unmolested data. (Discrete month to month, so to speak).
I don't want to get into that unmolested vs cumulative idea here. If you ever get to trading these products and attempt to build a program out of it, you'll know exactly what i mean.
You could easily enough ballpark an etf trade and do it in any of a 1000 different ways. I use vix etf's all the time in the smaller accounts i run where i cannot run the algo with futures.
Again this is just my area of work. I do not stray out of it too often at all, so if one is interested in something else then i doubt i could help much. The "why" this is my area is because of the idea's Cosmo's has given.
Points 1, 2, 3 from above.
There's ZERO chance i would waste my time with stocks. They are just poor bets and poor returns. We are living in great times with so many excellent products to trade, it's never been more fun and profitable.
Sure stock indexes are positive EV over time, but there's way more to it than just that.
Today is/was the day we got out vix mojo running, lol. wow what a beating. We haven't had that in a bit.
good luck.
- RD
Good stuff. Thanks a lot!
ReplyDeleteCosmo, Based on some reading, I am pretty bearish on the Euro right now. Do you think a short on Eur/Usd "buy and hold" approach is a good idea right now?
Do you think a short on Eur/Usd "buy and hold" approach is a good idea right now?
Delete_________________________________________________________________________________
At this very moment?
The short answer is no.
The longer answer...
I'm assuming buy and hold means you are working off the daily/weekly chart and your targets are at least the 1.0500 lows established earlier this year.
The weekly trend is down so looking for a short is logical but currently I don't see a weakness in the counter trend rally. So the odds at the moment don't seem greatly in your favor.
Price simply being near the top of range is nice but only 50/50 coin flip.
Remember you want compound independent probabilities for a solid edge.
CG
Also always use all your tools.
DeleteCognizant of the situation on the weekly chart does not confined to play only a position trade.
You can make 30 to 50 pips on a intra-day short, close 90% of a position locking in a profit and let the remaining 10% run maybe 500 or a 1000 pips more.
Thus you can continue to make money while the higher time frame sorts itself out.
In fact you will have made money even if the position short never materializes.
CG
A humorous but also important point to note on Karen the super trader is that she is NOT on YouTube/social media selling a course.
ReplyDeleteA traders's ability/profitability is inverse to his or her visibility.
A trader grows an account by a percent or more per week and he's the invisible man.
But under perform and/or lose money year after year?...
HELLO YOU OUT THERE! I OFFER A MONTHLY SUBSCRIPTION WITH DAILY UPDATES AND HAVE THIS INCREDIBLY NEW AND IMPROVED COURSE BLAH BLAH BLAH
YOU CAN FIND ME ON FACEBOOK, ITUNES, EVERYWHERE AND ANYWHERE!
CG
Man, wish I had some hedges in place past 3 days.
ReplyDeletelike maybe a nice VIX option.
Cosmo,
ReplyDeleteyou say "Price simply being near the top of range is nice but only 50/50 coin flip.
Remember you want compound independent probabilities for a solid edge."
are you talking about having sell or buy signals using several indicators?
like, top of range, and over bought, and say... near a round number??? things like that?
also, in your experience, is it possible to consistantly make gains using these strategies on a lower time frame? Or is there too much noise?